Guys involved are all TAGS. I have no idea if they know I am playing reasonably tight at this moment in game, but I was. Obviously I have only done this a few times in my entire poker experience. QQ is different, but KK...So tough. I basically timed out on all 7 other tables I had open while I was trying to decide.
MERGE_GAME #2806875002199: Texas Hold'em NL $1/$2 09/26/2010 15:21:12
Table Bad Beat - Statue of Liberty (28068750)
Seat 1: H1tman85 ($743.19 in chips)
Seat 2: KoukussaII ($206.75 in chips)
Seat 3: kagame ($233.36 in chips)
Seat 4: screwed0 ($636.12 in chips) DEALER
Seat 5: sik0tic ($198.00 in chips)
Seat 6: BetterAllTheTime ($227.50 in chips)
sik0tic: Post SB $1.00
BetterAllTheTime: Post BB $2.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to kagame [Ks Kh]
H1tman85: Raise $7.00
KoukussaII: Call $7.00
kagame: Raise $31.00
screwed0: Fold
sik0tic: Fold
BetterAllTheTime: Call $29.00
H1tman85: Raise $99.75
KoukussaII: Fold
kagame: Fold
BetterAllTheTime: Allin $196.50
H1tman85: Call $120.75
Sunday, September 26, 2010
Wednesday, September 08, 2010
HU - A9 on A-J-9 facing shove
So had a very tough spot today. Everyone say easy call? Or tough but mandatory fold? If the draws were not there I think I would turbomuck against all but the most spewtastic opponents. With the clubs and straight draws, not sure. I had also been three betting 15-20% so I do not think my opponent can give me credit for a set, AJ, and even A9 is usually a three bet for me.
Villain is a Tag, preflop - a bit wild.
Table Yosemite (Heads Up) (27653610)
Seat 1: hiksaaa ($145.40 in chips) DEALER
Seat 2: kagame ($416.10 in chips)
hiksaaa: Post SB $0.50
kagame: Post BB $1.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to kagame [Ah 9h]
hiksaaa: Raise $2.50
kagame: Call $2.00
*** FLOP *** [Jc 9d Ac]
kagame: Check
hiksaaa: Bet $4.00
kagame: Raise $20.00
hiksaaa: Allin $138.40
kagame ?
Villain is a Tag, preflop - a bit wild.
Table Yosemite (Heads Up) (27653610)
Seat 1: hiksaaa ($145.40 in chips) DEALER
Seat 2: kagame ($416.10 in chips)
hiksaaa: Post SB $0.50
kagame: Post BB $1.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to kagame [Ah 9h]
hiksaaa: Raise $2.50
kagame: Call $2.00
*** FLOP *** [Jc 9d Ac]
kagame: Check
hiksaaa: Bet $4.00
kagame: Raise $20.00
hiksaaa: Allin $138.40
kagame ?
Friday, September 03, 2010
DC Heads Up Group
Hey Everyone,
For those of you that have not already done so, please go ahead and watch Prynnraiding S1 and S2 as well.
For early discussion topics, focus on identifying which type of player you are up against, and possible counter-strategies to aggressive three betting from the bb, which seems to be a very common issue in today's games.
If you care to, please comment and introduce yourself to your fellow HU DC players.
Ill go first:
My name is Dan, I'm 25, and I have been playing poker since the Moneymaker boom when I was in college which was many many years ago. I am currently grinding .5/1 on Merge on the sn Kagame. I just made a successful run at the 50NL games and had a very substantial winrate over a large sample. I am hoping the trend continues at 100nl.
I feel that my 6Max game is mucy stronger than my HU game. I tend to really only be able to win at HU when I run well, and have a huge problem with bluffing off stacks - usually when I have 4 bet bluff preflop vs a monkey clicking buttons who is 3 betting me 50% of the time. Sometimes I go for thin value with top pair, get pwned, and sit there shaking my head in confusion.
For those of you that have not already done so, please go ahead and watch Prynnraiding S1 and S2 as well.
For early discussion topics, focus on identifying which type of player you are up against, and possible counter-strategies to aggressive three betting from the bb, which seems to be a very common issue in today's games.
If you care to, please comment and introduce yourself to your fellow HU DC players.
Ill go first:
My name is Dan, I'm 25, and I have been playing poker since the Moneymaker boom when I was in college which was many many years ago. I am currently grinding .5/1 on Merge on the sn Kagame. I just made a successful run at the 50NL games and had a very substantial winrate over a large sample. I am hoping the trend continues at 100nl.
I feel that my 6Max game is mucy stronger than my HU game. I tend to really only be able to win at HU when I run well, and have a huge problem with bluffing off stacks - usually when I have 4 bet bluff preflop vs a monkey clicking buttons who is 3 betting me 50% of the time. Sometimes I go for thin value with top pair, get pwned, and sit there shaking my head in confusion.
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Know your enemy and yourself
"If your enemy is secure at all points, be prepared for him. If he is in superior strength, evade him. If your opponent is temperamental, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant. If he is taking his ease, give him no rest. If his forces are united, separate them. If sovereign and subject are in accord, put division between them. Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected."
"All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near. Hold out baits to entice the enemy. Feign disorder, and crush him."
- Sun Tzu, the Art of War
"All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near. Hold out baits to entice the enemy. Feign disorder, and crush him."
- Sun Tzu, the Art of War
weakness as strength
"If you are going to coach yourself for success, you have to embrace your shortcomings and view them--not as threats--but as opportunities for growth.
If you are threatened by your weaknesses, you'll tend to avoid thinking about them. That's a great way to ensure a lack of professional development.
If, however, you look at each weakness as a personal challenge to overcome and an opportunity to become more than you are, you will sustain the optimism and motivation to extend your learning curve."
-traderfeed
http://www.wallstcheatsheet.com/WS/WS/Entries/2009/5/26_WSCS_Trading_Combine%3A_Lesson_3.html
If you are threatened by your weaknesses, you'll tend to avoid thinking about them. That's a great way to ensure a lack of professional development.
If, however, you look at each weakness as a personal challenge to overcome and an opportunity to become more than you are, you will sustain the optimism and motivation to extend your learning curve."
-traderfeed
http://www.wallstcheatsheet.com/WS/WS/Entries/2009/5/26_WSCS_Trading_Combine%3A_Lesson_3.html
Friday, May 22, 2009
Coping well = better intuition
"Improving our coping is important, not just to moderate the impact of stress, but to help us retain access to those subtle cognitive, emotional, and physiological cues that are markers for our implicit knowledge. As I've noted in past posts, we know more than we know we know. What we call intuition is actually an internalization of repeated experience that makes us exquisitely sensitive to patterns in events...
When we do not cope well and are overwhelmed by the mind and body's flight or fight responses, we lose access to those implicit cues...
Similarly, the trader who is enmeshed in panic, worry, and frustration loses access to subtle market patterns--and especially to the internal cues that are alerts to those patterns. This is how we can make decisions in the heat of market action that we later look back upon and wonder, "How could I have done that? How could I have missed that?"
Coping is crucial, because it keeps us in a zone in which we can reason well explicitly, but can also act swiftly upon our implicit knowing."
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/
When we do not cope well and are overwhelmed by the mind and body's flight or fight responses, we lose access to those implicit cues...
Similarly, the trader who is enmeshed in panic, worry, and frustration loses access to subtle market patterns--and especially to the internal cues that are alerts to those patterns. This is how we can make decisions in the heat of market action that we later look back upon and wonder, "How could I have done that? How could I have missed that?"
Coping is crucial, because it keeps us in a zone in which we can reason well explicitly, but can also act swiftly upon our implicit knowing."
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/
Trader's Spouses
"As I began interviewing traders for this book, I was surprised how many of them wanted to talk about their love for their wives. One after another talked with great feeling and without any prompting from me about the trust, support, and encouragement he felt at home.
The intellectual demands of the market are not very high. In this game we only have to deal with five factors: open, high, low, closing prices, and volume. Why then do so many people who are successful in their professional lives fail in trading? This is because trading places immense emotional demands on all of us. It evokes powerful feelings- fear, greed, and so on, making it very easy to make bad decisions. A person with a happy personal life has an advantage, while the one with a stormy personal life finds himself doubly stressed.
This is not to say that every trader in this book lives in marital heaven. Some are single, and at least one is currently going through an unpleasant divorce. Curiously enough, he is also in a draw-down this year, although as a professional trader, his losses are minimal, and I am sure he will pull out of his slump. I still remember the deep slump I had at the time of my divorce many years ago.
A person who goes home to a smiling, loving spouse and does not need to spend an ounce of mental energy on figuring out the angles of a tense personal relationship is in a much better position when he sits in front of the computer to analyze charts and make decisions. While most traders in this book conformed to this pattern, it is difficult to translate it into a specific recommendation. What you do with this insight is entirely up to you. I can only share with you my surprise at discovering this factor in the lives of many successful traders."
Entries and Exits, Elder, p. 317
The intellectual demands of the market are not very high. In this game we only have to deal with five factors: open, high, low, closing prices, and volume. Why then do so many people who are successful in their professional lives fail in trading? This is because trading places immense emotional demands on all of us. It evokes powerful feelings- fear, greed, and so on, making it very easy to make bad decisions. A person with a happy personal life has an advantage, while the one with a stormy personal life finds himself doubly stressed.
This is not to say that every trader in this book lives in marital heaven. Some are single, and at least one is currently going through an unpleasant divorce. Curiously enough, he is also in a draw-down this year, although as a professional trader, his losses are minimal, and I am sure he will pull out of his slump. I still remember the deep slump I had at the time of my divorce many years ago.
A person who goes home to a smiling, loving spouse and does not need to spend an ounce of mental energy on figuring out the angles of a tense personal relationship is in a much better position when he sits in front of the computer to analyze charts and make decisions. While most traders in this book conformed to this pattern, it is difficult to translate it into a specific recommendation. What you do with this insight is entirely up to you. I can only share with you my surprise at discovering this factor in the lives of many successful traders."
Entries and Exits, Elder, p. 317
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Spock her
StockTickr: What do you like best about trading?
Michelle: It continually makes me a better person, calmer and more rational. You can’t say that for most jobs.
http://blog.stocktickr.com/2006/10/30/interview-with-michelle-b/
Michelle: It continually makes me a better person, calmer and more rational. You can’t say that for most jobs.
http://blog.stocktickr.com/2006/10/30/interview-with-michelle-b/
Sunday, May 17, 2009
from Traderfeed
"Without freedom there is no trading. Trading is a celebration of economic and political freedom. Slaves are traded; they do not trade.
All this freedom, however, is for naught if we, ourselves, are not free. It is the deepest of ironies that we experience greater freedom--far broader potentials--than those who came before us. And yet, in our lives, in our abilities to master ourselves, we are no freer. Amid opportunity, we remain partial: tethered to our conditioning.
What it means to be free is to be able to choose, to live with intention. The free life is one that we guide: a life lived with purpose, direction, and meaning.
Trading, like all the great performance activities, is an opportunity to cultivate the intentional life. Pursued properly, it is a path to freedom."
Enhancing Trader Performance
p. 254
All this freedom, however, is for naught if we, ourselves, are not free. It is the deepest of ironies that we experience greater freedom--far broader potentials--than those who came before us. And yet, in our lives, in our abilities to master ourselves, we are no freer. Amid opportunity, we remain partial: tethered to our conditioning.
What it means to be free is to be able to choose, to live with intention. The free life is one that we guide: a life lived with purpose, direction, and meaning.
Trading, like all the great performance activities, is an opportunity to cultivate the intentional life. Pursued properly, it is a path to freedom."
Enhancing Trader Performance
p. 254
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Sunday, March 16, 2008
UB = UTTER GARBAGE
Ultimate Bet wouldnt let me withdraw a transfer to my account, and I even wanted to transfer to Absolute. So they tell me if I play on the ENTIRE transfered balance my account will be unrestricted. So I take half the account to a big game in an attempt to play a big pot or be able to reraise all in to get access to my money. This is the VERY first hand I play in a big game.
Hand #51338522-215 at Radford (No Limit Hold'em)
Started at 16/Mar/08 21:30:44
Kagame is at seat 0 with $2500.
JacquesB is at seat 3 with $7070.
trambopoline is at seat 4 with $11492.
jcada99 is at seat 5 with $2346.
The button is at seat 4.
jcada99 posts the small blind of $25.
Kagame posts the big blind of $50.
Kagame: Kd Kh
JacquesB: -- --
trambopoline: -- --
jcada99: -- --
Pre-flop:
JacquesB folds. trambopoline raises to $175.
jcada99 re-raises to $575. Kagame calls.
trambopoline re-raises to $1950. jcada99 folds.
Kagame goes all-in for $2500. trambopoline calls.
Flop (board: 3d Ad Jc):
(no action in this round)
Turn (board: 3d Ad Jc 9s):
(no action in this round)
River (board: 3d Ad Jc 9s Qs):
(no action in this round)
Showdown:
Kagame shows Kd Kh.
Kagame has Kd Kh Ad Jc Qs: a pair of kings.
trambopoline shows 9h 9d.
trambopoline has 9h 9d Ad 9s Qs: three nines.
Hand #51338522-215 at Radford (No Limit Hold'em)
Started at 16/Mar/08 21:30:44
Kagame is at seat 0 with $2500.
JacquesB is at seat 3 with $7070.
trambopoline is at seat 4 with $11492.
jcada99 is at seat 5 with $2346.
The button is at seat 4.
jcada99 posts the small blind of $25.
Kagame posts the big blind of $50.
Kagame: Kd Kh
JacquesB: -- --
trambopoline: -- --
jcada99: -- --
Pre-flop:
JacquesB folds. trambopoline raises to $175.
jcada99 re-raises to $575. Kagame calls.
trambopoline re-raises to $1950. jcada99 folds.
Kagame goes all-in for $2500. trambopoline calls.
Flop (board: 3d Ad Jc):
(no action in this round)
Turn (board: 3d Ad Jc 9s):
(no action in this round)
River (board: 3d Ad Jc 9s Qs):
(no action in this round)
Showdown:
Kagame shows Kd Kh.
Kagame has Kd Kh Ad Jc Qs: a pair of kings.
trambopoline shows 9h 9d.
trambopoline has 9h 9d Ad 9s Qs: three nines.
Sunday, December 23, 2007
Crushcrushcrush
I could never get away with these types of calls in the old school FT 5/10 games. Actually I just wouldn't ever even have the opportunity. There seems to be a trend nowadays of devolution into the type of aggressive player who doesn't seek to represent a hand, or tell a story with a bluff, but merely shoves it in at whim and prays for a fold. Pray harder sir, pray harder.
Full Tilt Poker $5/$10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
Hand Converter Tool from www.DeucesCracked.com
Button: $1081.50
SB: $215.00
BB: $1337.00
UTG: $1162.00
MP: $2700.25
CO: $1030.00
Preflop: Hero is Button with Ad, Qs
UTG raises to $35, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $120, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls $85.
Flop: ($255.00) Qd, 4c, 5s (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $100, UTG raises to $250, Hero calls $150.
Turn: ($755.00) Ks (2 players)
UTG bets $792 (all in), Hero calls $711.50 (all in).
Final Pot: $2178.00
Results:
Hero shows Ad, Qs (two pair, Aces and Queens).
UTG shows Jh, Qh (a pair of Queens).
Outcome: ($2178.00 Rake)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I should probably have been up against a huge draw. Pretty sick lack of re-raise pf, and then that draw heavy flop, and the check raise opportunity as Paul has the WORST position initially, but the BEST position once the short stack's C-bet goes through me. Bob Ciaffone talks about this phenomenon at length, apparently I need to reread that excerpt. Saw so much AA vs KK action tonight. At one table it happened in back to back hands, with myself having KK in the second confrontation. NEAT. Paul Wolfe, the FT pro that won this pot, is a super nice guy and loaned me some cab fare (actually he just commented on the hard core cooler).
Full Tilt Poker $5/$10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
Hand Converter Tool from www.DeucesCracked.com
CO: $2267.00
Button: $227.25
SB: $1342.00
BB: $1079.00
UTG: $1120.50
MP: $302.00
Preflop: Hero is CO with Th, Ts
UTG raises to $30, MP calls $30, Hero calls $30, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds.
Flop: ($105.00) Kd, Tc, 4c (3 players)
UTG checks, MP bets $100, Hero calls $100, UTG raises to $410, MP calls $172 (all in), Hero raises to $2,237 (all in), UTG calls $680.50 (all in).
Final Pot: $2558.00
Results:
Hero shows Th, Ts (three of a kind, Tens).
UTG shows Ks, Kc (three of a kind, Kings).
MP shows Ah, Ac (Just one measly pair).
Outcome: ($2558.00 Rake)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jamie, this is why you don't slow play, its just too hard to fold monster hands, and often you're missing a chance to get it in as a huge favorite. I was a bit shocked to see my opponents hand (suited clubs aspect). Pretty amazing check behind. Hated his river bet, I sort of assumed I'd be beat a large % of the time... I definitely played this hand terribly on about 3398723487 levels. I'll just lead with a nasty BET POT next time...
Full Tilt Poker $5/$10 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
Hand Converter Tool from www.DeucesCracked.com
Button: $1619.25
: $200.00
BB: $2349.50
UTG: $1127.00
CO: $1000.00
Preflop: Hero is BB with Qd, Qh
UTG raises to $35, CO folds, Button folds, Hero raises to $110, UTG calls $75.
Flop: ($225.00) 2s, Qc, Tc (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks.
Turn: ($225.00) 6d (2 players)
Hero bets $150, UTG calls $150.
River: ($525.00) Jh (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $420, Hero calls $420.
Final Pot: $1365.00
Results:
Hero mucks Qd, Qh.
UTG shows Ac, Kc (a straight, Ace high).
Outcome: UTG wins $1363.00.
($2.00 Rake)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Well now, I can suck out too, and somehow I get paid off these days. Must be the newfound popularity of my blog. lol @ kagame.
Full Tilt Poker $5/$10 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
Hand Converter Tool from www.DeucesCracked.com
CO: $1375.00
Button: $943.00
SB: $1412.00
BB: $702.00
UTG: $385.00
Preflop: Hero is CO with 4s, 3s
UTG folds, Hero raises to $35, Button calls $35, SB folds, BB calls $25.
Flop: ($110.00) Jd, 6h, 5d (3 players)
BB bets $66, Hero calls $66, Button folds.
Turn: ($242.00) 9c (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $190, BB calls $190.
River: ($622.00) 7c (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1,084 (all in), BB calls $411 (all in).
Final Pot: $1444.00
Results:
Hero shows 4s, 3s (a straight, Seven high).
BB doesn't show.
Outcome: ($1444.00 Rake)
Full Tilt Poker $5/$10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
Hand Converter Tool from www.DeucesCracked.com
Button: $1081.50
SB: $215.00
BB: $1337.00
UTG: $1162.00
MP: $2700.25
CO: $1030.00
Preflop: Hero is Button with Ad, Qs
UTG raises to $35, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $120, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls $85.
Flop: ($255.00) Qd, 4c, 5s (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $100, UTG raises to $250, Hero calls $150.
Turn: ($755.00) Ks (2 players)
UTG bets $792 (all in), Hero calls $711.50 (all in).
Final Pot: $2178.00
Results:
Hero shows Ad, Qs (two pair, Aces and Queens).
UTG shows Jh, Qh (a pair of Queens).
Outcome: ($2178.00 Rake)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I should probably have been up against a huge draw. Pretty sick lack of re-raise pf, and then that draw heavy flop, and the check raise opportunity as Paul has the WORST position initially, but the BEST position once the short stack's C-bet goes through me. Bob Ciaffone talks about this phenomenon at length, apparently I need to reread that excerpt. Saw so much AA vs KK action tonight. At one table it happened in back to back hands, with myself having KK in the second confrontation. NEAT. Paul Wolfe, the FT pro that won this pot, is a super nice guy and loaned me some cab fare (actually he just commented on the hard core cooler).
Full Tilt Poker $5/$10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
Hand Converter Tool from www.DeucesCracked.com
CO: $2267.00
Button: $227.25
SB: $1342.00
BB: $1079.00
UTG: $1120.50
MP: $302.00
Preflop: Hero is CO with Th, Ts
UTG raises to $30, MP calls $30, Hero calls $30, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds.
Flop: ($105.00) Kd, Tc, 4c (3 players)
UTG checks, MP bets $100, Hero calls $100, UTG raises to $410, MP calls $172 (all in), Hero raises to $2,237 (all in), UTG calls $680.50 (all in).
Final Pot: $2558.00
Results:
Hero shows Th, Ts (three of a kind, Tens).
UTG shows Ks, Kc (three of a kind, Kings).
MP shows Ah, Ac (Just one measly pair).
Outcome: ($2558.00 Rake)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jamie, this is why you don't slow play, its just too hard to fold monster hands, and often you're missing a chance to get it in as a huge favorite. I was a bit shocked to see my opponents hand (suited clubs aspect). Pretty amazing check behind. Hated his river bet, I sort of assumed I'd be beat a large % of the time... I definitely played this hand terribly on about 3398723487 levels. I'll just lead with a nasty BET POT next time...
Full Tilt Poker $5/$10 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
Hand Converter Tool from www.DeucesCracked.com
Button: $1619.25
: $200.00
BB: $2349.50
UTG: $1127.00
CO: $1000.00
Preflop: Hero is BB with Qd, Qh
UTG raises to $35, CO folds, Button folds, Hero raises to $110, UTG calls $75.
Flop: ($225.00) 2s, Qc, Tc (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks.
Turn: ($225.00) 6d (2 players)
Hero bets $150, UTG calls $150.
River: ($525.00) Jh (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $420, Hero calls $420.
Final Pot: $1365.00
Results:
Hero mucks Qd, Qh.
UTG shows Ac, Kc (a straight, Ace high).
Outcome: UTG wins $1363.00.
($2.00 Rake)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Well now, I can suck out too, and somehow I get paid off these days. Must be the newfound popularity of my blog. lol @ kagame.
Full Tilt Poker $5/$10 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
Hand Converter Tool from www.DeucesCracked.com
CO: $1375.00
Button: $943.00
SB: $1412.00
BB: $702.00
UTG: $385.00
Preflop: Hero is CO with 4s, 3s
UTG folds, Hero raises to $35, Button calls $35, SB folds, BB calls $25.
Flop: ($110.00) Jd, 6h, 5d (3 players)
BB bets $66, Hero calls $66, Button folds.
Turn: ($242.00) 9c (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $190, BB calls $190.
River: ($622.00) 7c (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1,084 (all in), BB calls $411 (all in).
Final Pot: $1444.00
Results:
Hero shows 4s, 3s (a straight, Seven high).
BB doesn't show.
Outcome: ($1444.00 Rake)
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
All's well that ends well
Full Tilt Poker Game #4553297942: Table Auborn (6 max) - $10/$20 - No Limit Hold'em - 10:25:42 ET - 2007/12/19
Seat 2: KaGame ($9,576)
Seat 4: ZingDingDing ($2,106)
Seat 5: dsindy ($2,496)
Seat 6: BOCKHUNTER ($2,033)
ZingDingDing posts the small blind of $10
dsindy posts the big blind of $20
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to KaGame [As Ac]
BOCKHUNTER has 15 seconds left to act
BOCKHUNTER folds
KaGame raises to $70
ZingDingDing raises to $250
dsindy folds
dsindy stands up
KaGame calls $180
*** FLOP *** [Qs 6d 5s]
ZingDingDing checks
KaGame bets $350
ZingDingDing has 15 seconds left to act
ZingDingDing raises to $1,250
KaGame raises to $2,150
ZingDingDing calls $606, and is all in
KaGame shows [As Ac]
ZingDingDing shows [Ts 7s]
Uncalled bet of $294 returned to KaGame
*** TURN *** [Qs 6d 5s] [9h]
*** RIVER *** [Qs 6d 5s 9h] [3d]
KaGame shows a pair of Aces
ZingDingDing shows Queen Ten high
KaGame wins the pot ($4,230) with a pair of Aces
ZingDingDing adds $2,000
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $4,232 | Rake $2
Board: [Qs 6d 5s 9h 3d]
Seat 2: KaGame (button) showed [As Ac] and won ($4,230) with a pair of Aces
Seat 4: ZingDingDing (small blind) showed [Ts 7s] and lost with Queen Ten high
Seat 5: dsindy (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: BOCKHUNTER didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: KaGame ($9,576)
Seat 4: ZingDingDing ($2,106)
Seat 5: dsindy ($2,496)
Seat 6: BOCKHUNTER ($2,033)
ZingDingDing posts the small blind of $10
dsindy posts the big blind of $20
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to KaGame [As Ac]
BOCKHUNTER has 15 seconds left to act
BOCKHUNTER folds
KaGame raises to $70
ZingDingDing raises to $250
dsindy folds
dsindy stands up
KaGame calls $180
*** FLOP *** [Qs 6d 5s]
ZingDingDing checks
KaGame bets $350
ZingDingDing has 15 seconds left to act
ZingDingDing raises to $1,250
KaGame raises to $2,150
ZingDingDing calls $606, and is all in
KaGame shows [As Ac]
ZingDingDing shows [Ts 7s]
Uncalled bet of $294 returned to KaGame
*** TURN *** [Qs 6d 5s] [9h]
*** RIVER *** [Qs 6d 5s 9h] [3d]
KaGame shows a pair of Aces
ZingDingDing shows Queen Ten high
KaGame wins the pot ($4,230) with a pair of Aces
ZingDingDing adds $2,000
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $4,232 | Rake $2
Board: [Qs 6d 5s 9h 3d]
Seat 2: KaGame (button) showed [As Ac] and won ($4,230) with a pair of Aces
Seat 4: ZingDingDing (small blind) showed [Ts 7s] and lost with Queen Ten high
Seat 5: dsindy (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: BOCKHUNTER didn't bet (folded)
Reality Resumes
The capstone to a night of beat after beat after beat after beat after...
Full Tilt Poker Game #4552531617: Table Oakmont (6 max) - $10/$20 - No Limit Hold'em - 7:28:41 ET - 2007/12/19
Seat 1: KaGame ($2,000)
Seat 2: Sydney Dean ($2,036)
Seat 3: luckydubs27 ($1,529)
Seat 4: BlaaserN ($368)
Seat 5: emma_206 ($500)
Seat 6: Legend ($380)
Legend posts the small blind of $10
KaGame posts the big blind of $20
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to KaGame [Jc Jd]
emma_206 stands up
Sydney Dean raises to $40
luckydubs27 calls $40
BlaaserN folds
Legend folds
KaGame raises to $170
Sydney Dean has 15 seconds left to act
Sydney Dean raises to $560
luckydubs27 folds
KaGame raises to $2,000, and is all in
Sydney Dean calls $1,440
KaGame shows [Jc Jd]
Sydney Dean shows [Ah 5h]
*** FLOP *** [5c Kd 9h]
*** TURN *** [5c Kd 9h] [Ac]
*** RIVER *** [5c Kd 9h Ac] [Qh]
KaGame shows a pair of Jacks
Sydney Dean shows two pair, Aces and Fives
Sydney Dean wins the pot ($4,047) with two pair, Aces and Fives
KaGame adds $400
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $4,050 | Rake $3
Board: [5c Kd 9h Ac Qh]
Seat 1: KaGame (big blind) showed [Jc Jd] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 2: Sydney Dean showed [Ah 5h] and won ($4,047) with two pair, Aces and Fives
Seat 3: luckydubs27 folded before the Flop
Seat 4: BlaaserN (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: emma_206 is sitting out
Seat 6: Legend (small blind) folded before the Flop
Full Tilt Poker Game #4552531617: Table Oakmont (6 max) - $10/$20 - No Limit Hold'em - 7:28:41 ET - 2007/12/19
Seat 1: KaGame ($2,000)
Seat 2: Sydney Dean ($2,036)
Seat 3: luckydubs27 ($1,529)
Seat 4: BlaaserN ($368)
Seat 5: emma_206 ($500)
Seat 6: Legend ($380)
Legend posts the small blind of $10
KaGame posts the big blind of $20
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to KaGame [Jc Jd]
emma_206 stands up
Sydney Dean raises to $40
luckydubs27 calls $40
BlaaserN folds
Legend folds
KaGame raises to $170
Sydney Dean has 15 seconds left to act
Sydney Dean raises to $560
luckydubs27 folds
KaGame raises to $2,000, and is all in
Sydney Dean calls $1,440
KaGame shows [Jc Jd]
Sydney Dean shows [Ah 5h]
*** FLOP *** [5c Kd 9h]
*** TURN *** [5c Kd 9h] [Ac]
*** RIVER *** [5c Kd 9h Ac] [Qh]
KaGame shows a pair of Jacks
Sydney Dean shows two pair, Aces and Fives
Sydney Dean wins the pot ($4,047) with two pair, Aces and Fives
KaGame adds $400
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $4,050 | Rake $3
Board: [5c Kd 9h Ac Qh]
Seat 1: KaGame (big blind) showed [Jc Jd] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 2: Sydney Dean showed [Ah 5h] and won ($4,047) with two pair, Aces and Fives
Seat 3: luckydubs27 folded before the Flop
Seat 4: BlaaserN (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: emma_206 is sitting out
Seat 6: Legend (small blind) folded before the Flop
Sunday, December 16, 2007
Excerpt from my paper on Survivorship and Randomness
Feedback Welcomed
My own personal experiences with survivorship are the primary cause of my interest in this topic. Beginning about halfway through my sophomore year of undergraduate study I took up the habit of participating in a five nights a week poker game with a group of other students at the University of Kansas. This group was maintained by a core membership of about ten individuals, with perhaps twenty or more others frequenting the game on a whim or only on a few occasions. Thinking back, the vicissitudes of random luck on certain individuals caused them to disappear forever, while other less skilled or intelligent players, are still playing to this day. Those with the initial luck sufficient to keep them playing soon gained the necessary experience and skills to become long term break even players, or even winners vs. weaker competition than my group of poker savants. An appraisal of the group four years later gives us a very dynamic and bizarre set of results with regard to poker success among the group‘s members, many of whom I am still cordial with. The earliest winner in the game, a player I will call Jeff, had a great deal of natural brilliance and aggression in his early style. Jeff won a tremendous amount of money ($30k+) from a start of perhaps $50. After this initial run, Jeff experienced numerous “blowups” where he would put his entire bankroll into a game, start to experience poor luck, start playing terribly, and subsequently lose everything he had won. Another of the early leaders, a player referred to here as Stephen, played very well compared to the group initially, showing advanced reasoning skills and the ability to go with his instincts. However, later on Stephen experienced numerous shocks to his confidence and was unable to continue winning, becoming a long term break-even player who never advanced to fulfill his, in my opinion, considerable potential. Another player, whom I will call Brett, was one of the biggest losers in the game initially, the other players would prompt a friend of his to invite him to the regular game to donate money (only a $20 or $40 buy-in early on, growing to $100 or $200 later). This went on for some time, but eventually things clicked and Brett began to win occasionally, always improving versus the field. Through the years Brett has become one of the most successful poker players any of the group have ever met, winning hundreds of thousands of dollars playing professionally on the internet. Many other players with medium level skills from this group have done well, and even more who seemed promising have experienced poor results and given up the game except as an occasional hobby. I personally have experienced both great success and huge blowups, my saving grace the fact that I have always taken money while winning and put it into a savings account or the stock market, convinced that the role of luck in the game was huge and that the extent of my results might only be the result of a prolonged lucky streak. As my experience has grown I realize that at some points the difference between success and failure was truly a coin flip.
The implications of my observations, while not at all scholarly or scientific, do have the advantage of being the result of first hand and highly detailed experience. Everything I witnessed in this game in which results come from mostly short term variance, combined with the necessity for basic math skills, intuition, emotional self control, fearlessness in the face of intimidating sums of money, and constant adaptation, lead me to believe that long term success was highly possible with the correct money management and determination. I was always told poker was unbeatable, like any zero sum or worse (when considering the money raked out of every pot by the house). This common knowledge was simply wrong. Yet I realized that in any individual, the ability to see odds clearly and make probabilistically correct decisions was an incredibly rare ability, especially in newcomers. Those who were successful in the game short term had basic technical poker skills the group as a whole lacked, however as we all gained those skills through practice and emulation, the long term winners emerged. Those long term winners, I call them survivors, had traits incredibly similar to the traits of surviving farmers, or of money managers with extremely long survival rates. Anyone can do well in the short term due to luck or random factors, but true success requires acceptance and expectation of the black swan event that will surely befall us all one day. For poker, all successful players have a fallback plan in case of losing their playing bankroll. They even have contingencies to make such a loss almost an inevitability, such as moving down in game size, or setting loss limits for a certain time period. As we have seen, the other risk filled environments have similar requirements for survivorship. Whether it be a particularly vicious flood that sweeps all but the field planted at the highest elevation away; or the utter and complete economic collapse of a particular country causing a market panic and a portfolio shattered into huge losses except for that one risk hedging short position which balances out a large percentage of the loss. (As an aside, my penchant for risk assessment and management has led me to consider a career in stock trading, or short term investing. However the more I read on the subject, the more I see the skills I gained from poker are merely an entrance ticket, and short term luck in this field is just as high a factor as that in poker. Truly verifiable results might take years or even decades to be revealed.)
My own personal experiences with survivorship are the primary cause of my interest in this topic. Beginning about halfway through my sophomore year of undergraduate study I took up the habit of participating in a five nights a week poker game with a group of other students at the University of Kansas. This group was maintained by a core membership of about ten individuals, with perhaps twenty or more others frequenting the game on a whim or only on a few occasions. Thinking back, the vicissitudes of random luck on certain individuals caused them to disappear forever, while other less skilled or intelligent players, are still playing to this day. Those with the initial luck sufficient to keep them playing soon gained the necessary experience and skills to become long term break even players, or even winners vs. weaker competition than my group of poker savants. An appraisal of the group four years later gives us a very dynamic and bizarre set of results with regard to poker success among the group‘s members, many of whom I am still cordial with. The earliest winner in the game, a player I will call Jeff, had a great deal of natural brilliance and aggression in his early style. Jeff won a tremendous amount of money ($30k+) from a start of perhaps $50. After this initial run, Jeff experienced numerous “blowups” where he would put his entire bankroll into a game, start to experience poor luck, start playing terribly, and subsequently lose everything he had won. Another of the early leaders, a player referred to here as Stephen, played very well compared to the group initially, showing advanced reasoning skills and the ability to go with his instincts. However, later on Stephen experienced numerous shocks to his confidence and was unable to continue winning, becoming a long term break-even player who never advanced to fulfill his, in my opinion, considerable potential. Another player, whom I will call Brett, was one of the biggest losers in the game initially, the other players would prompt a friend of his to invite him to the regular game to donate money (only a $20 or $40 buy-in early on, growing to $100 or $200 later). This went on for some time, but eventually things clicked and Brett began to win occasionally, always improving versus the field. Through the years Brett has become one of the most successful poker players any of the group have ever met, winning hundreds of thousands of dollars playing professionally on the internet. Many other players with medium level skills from this group have done well, and even more who seemed promising have experienced poor results and given up the game except as an occasional hobby. I personally have experienced both great success and huge blowups, my saving grace the fact that I have always taken money while winning and put it into a savings account or the stock market, convinced that the role of luck in the game was huge and that the extent of my results might only be the result of a prolonged lucky streak. As my experience has grown I realize that at some points the difference between success and failure was truly a coin flip.
The implications of my observations, while not at all scholarly or scientific, do have the advantage of being the result of first hand and highly detailed experience. Everything I witnessed in this game in which results come from mostly short term variance, combined with the necessity for basic math skills, intuition, emotional self control, fearlessness in the face of intimidating sums of money, and constant adaptation, lead me to believe that long term success was highly possible with the correct money management and determination. I was always told poker was unbeatable, like any zero sum or worse (when considering the money raked out of every pot by the house). This common knowledge was simply wrong. Yet I realized that in any individual, the ability to see odds clearly and make probabilistically correct decisions was an incredibly rare ability, especially in newcomers. Those who were successful in the game short term had basic technical poker skills the group as a whole lacked, however as we all gained those skills through practice and emulation, the long term winners emerged. Those long term winners, I call them survivors, had traits incredibly similar to the traits of surviving farmers, or of money managers with extremely long survival rates. Anyone can do well in the short term due to luck or random factors, but true success requires acceptance and expectation of the black swan event that will surely befall us all one day. For poker, all successful players have a fallback plan in case of losing their playing bankroll. They even have contingencies to make such a loss almost an inevitability, such as moving down in game size, or setting loss limits for a certain time period. As we have seen, the other risk filled environments have similar requirements for survivorship. Whether it be a particularly vicious flood that sweeps all but the field planted at the highest elevation away; or the utter and complete economic collapse of a particular country causing a market panic and a portfolio shattered into huge losses except for that one risk hedging short position which balances out a large percentage of the loss. (As an aside, my penchant for risk assessment and management has led me to consider a career in stock trading, or short term investing. However the more I read on the subject, the more I see the skills I gained from poker are merely an entrance ticket, and short term luck in this field is just as high a factor as that in poker. Truly verifiable results might take years or even decades to be revealed.)
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
The Big Game
Shanda ER Tonight! General bearish conditions and underperforming Chinese stocks have crushed Shanda down 20% or so. Pretty painful considering I rebought all the shares I had sold at $40 when the pps got back down to $36. I really had no idea when the conference call would be, but this is much later than I expected. Well, I changed my Ameritrade account to margin capable and now I have over 7000 shares. 7000 is the most I've ever held into a conference call. Many would say it is reckless gambling. Maybe they are right. However, I have confidence in the managment, and the chart looks strong. Many institutional market genius types have been buying in bulk. Chen gives an interview on CNN Money tomorrow. I suppose you could say I believe the stars have aligned for Shanda to move up over $5 tomorrow. What a rollercoaster!
Friday, November 16, 2007
WHAP THE POT aka paynter style
Its just unfair how good this river bet is
Full Tilt Poker Game #4199850240: Table Even (heads up) - $25/$50 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:09:02 ET - 2007/11/16
Seat 1: OneUponAStar ($12,176.50)
Seat 2: KaGame ($10,176.75)
OneUponAStar posts the small blind of $25
KaGame posts the big blind of $50
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to KaGame [Td Qc]
OneUponAStar raises to $150
KaGame calls $100
*** FLOP *** [3c Qd Jc]
KaGame checks
OneUponAStar bets $200
KaGame raises to $400
OneUponAStar raises to $1,100
KaGame calls $700
*** TURN *** [3c Qd Jc] [Ah]
KaGame checks
OneUponAStar checks
*** RIVER *** [3c Qd Jc Ah] [5c]
KaGame bets $3,000
OneUponAStar folds
Uncalled bet of $3,000 returned to KaGame
KaGame mucks
KaGame wins the pot ($2,499.50)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $2,500 | Rake $0.50
Board: [3c Qd Jc Ah 5c]
Seat 1: OneUponAStar (small blind) folded on the River
Seat 2: KaGame (big blind) collected ($2,499.50), mucked
Full Tilt Poker Game #4199850240: Table Even (heads up) - $25/$50 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:09:02 ET - 2007/11/16
Seat 1: OneUponAStar ($12,176.50)
Seat 2: KaGame ($10,176.75)
OneUponAStar posts the small blind of $25
KaGame posts the big blind of $50
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to KaGame [Td Qc]
OneUponAStar raises to $150
KaGame calls $100
*** FLOP *** [3c Qd Jc]
KaGame checks
OneUponAStar bets $200
KaGame raises to $400
OneUponAStar raises to $1,100
KaGame calls $700
*** TURN *** [3c Qd Jc] [Ah]
KaGame checks
OneUponAStar checks
*** RIVER *** [3c Qd Jc Ah] [5c]
KaGame bets $3,000
OneUponAStar folds
Uncalled bet of $3,000 returned to KaGame
KaGame mucks
KaGame wins the pot ($2,499.50)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $2,500 | Rake $0.50
Board: [3c Qd Jc Ah 5c]
Seat 1: OneUponAStar (small blind) folded on the River
Seat 2: KaGame (big blind) collected ($2,499.50), mucked
Same guy who wouldnt fold AA earlier on the scary river
Hand plays itself, what an amazing flop, I really could just have a draw.
Full Tilt Poker Game #4199806407: Table Larson (6 max) - $10/$20 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:04:50 ET - 2007/11/16
Seat 1: KaGame ($5,473)
Seat 2: skier_5 ($5,773)
Seat 3: kerpowski ($1,374)
Seat 4: Gollum63 ($500)
Seat 5: duke027 ($971)
Seat 6: thumper18 ($4,249.50)
skier_5 posts the small blind of $10
kerpowski posts the big blind of $20
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to KaGame [As Ah]
Gollum63 folds
duke027 folds
thumper18 raises to $70
KaGame raises to $240
skier_5 folds
kerpowski folds
thumper18 raises to $710
KaGame has 15 seconds left to act
KaGame calls $470
*** FLOP *** [Td 6s 7d]
thumper18 bets $920
KaGame raises to $4,763, and is all in
thumper18 calls $2,619.50, and is all in
KaGame shows [As Ah]
thumper18 shows [Kh Kd]
Uncalled bet of $1,223.50 returned to KaGame
*** TURN *** [Td 6s 7d] [9c]
*** RIVER *** [Td 6s 7d 9c] [3c]
KaGame shows a pair of Aces
thumper18 shows a pair of Kings
KaGame wins the pot ($8,526) with a pair of Aces
thumper18 is sitting out
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $8,529 | Rake $3
Board: [Td 6s 7d 9c 3c]
Seat 1: KaGame (button) showed [As Ah] and won ($8,526) with a pair of Aces
Seat 2: skier_5 (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 3: kerpowski (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 4: Gollum63 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: duke027 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: thumper18 showed [Kh Kd] and lost with a pair of Kings
Full Tilt Poker Game #4199806407: Table Larson (6 max) - $10/$20 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:04:50 ET - 2007/11/16
Seat 1: KaGame ($5,473)
Seat 2: skier_5 ($5,773)
Seat 3: kerpowski ($1,374)
Seat 4: Gollum63 ($500)
Seat 5: duke027 ($971)
Seat 6: thumper18 ($4,249.50)
skier_5 posts the small blind of $10
kerpowski posts the big blind of $20
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to KaGame [As Ah]
Gollum63 folds
duke027 folds
thumper18 raises to $70
KaGame raises to $240
skier_5 folds
kerpowski folds
thumper18 raises to $710
KaGame has 15 seconds left to act
KaGame calls $470
*** FLOP *** [Td 6s 7d]
thumper18 bets $920
KaGame raises to $4,763, and is all in
thumper18 calls $2,619.50, and is all in
KaGame shows [As Ah]
thumper18 shows [Kh Kd]
Uncalled bet of $1,223.50 returned to KaGame
*** TURN *** [Td 6s 7d] [9c]
*** RIVER *** [Td 6s 7d 9c] [3c]
KaGame shows a pair of Aces
thumper18 shows a pair of Kings
KaGame wins the pot ($8,526) with a pair of Aces
thumper18 is sitting out
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $8,529 | Rake $3
Board: [Td 6s 7d 9c 3c]
Seat 1: KaGame (button) showed [As Ah] and won ($8,526) with a pair of Aces
Seat 2: skier_5 (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 3: kerpowski (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 4: Gollum63 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: duke027 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: thumper18 showed [Kh Kd] and lost with a pair of Kings
This is the level of play that you cant teach
Full Tilt Poker Game #4199759039: Table Even (heads up) - $25/$50 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:00:23 ET - 2007/11/16
Seat 1: OneUponAStar ($13,212)
Seat 2: KaGame ($9,145.75)
KaGame posts the small blind of $25
OneUponAStar posts the big blind of $50
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to KaGame [7h Ad]
KaGame raises to $100
OneUponAStar calls $50
*** FLOP *** [3h 4c 5h]
OneUponAStar checks
KaGame bets $200
OneUponAStar calls $200
*** TURN *** [3h 4c 5h] [As]
OneUponAStar checks
KaGame checks
*** RIVER *** [3h 4c 5h As] [Jc]
OneUponAStar bets $300
KaGame calls $300
*** SHOW DOWN ***
OneUponAStar shows [6c Tc] Ace Jack high
KaGame shows [7h Ad] a pair of Aces
KaGame wins the pot ($1,199.50) with a pair of Aces
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $1,200 | Rake $0.50
Board: [3h 4c 5h As Jc]
Seat 1: OneUponAStar (big blind) showed [6c Tc] and lost with Ace Jack high
Seat 2: KaGame (small blind) showed [7h Ad] and won ($1,199.50) with a pair of Aces
Seat 1: OneUponAStar ($13,212)
Seat 2: KaGame ($9,145.75)
KaGame posts the small blind of $25
OneUponAStar posts the big blind of $50
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to KaGame [7h Ad]
KaGame raises to $100
OneUponAStar calls $50
*** FLOP *** [3h 4c 5h]
OneUponAStar checks
KaGame bets $200
OneUponAStar calls $200
*** TURN *** [3h 4c 5h] [As]
OneUponAStar checks
KaGame checks
*** RIVER *** [3h 4c 5h As] [Jc]
OneUponAStar bets $300
KaGame calls $300
*** SHOW DOWN ***
OneUponAStar shows [6c Tc] Ace Jack high
KaGame shows [7h Ad] a pair of Aces
KaGame wins the pot ($1,199.50) with a pair of Aces
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $1,200 | Rake $0.50
Board: [3h 4c 5h As Jc]
Seat 1: OneUponAStar (big blind) showed [6c Tc] and lost with Ace Jack high
Seat 2: KaGame (small blind) showed [7h Ad] and won ($1,199.50) with a pair of Aces
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