I could never get away with these types of calls in the old school FT 5/10 games. Actually I just wouldn't ever even have the opportunity. There seems to be a trend nowadays of devolution into the type of aggressive player who doesn't seek to represent a hand, or tell a story with a bluff, but merely shoves it in at whim and prays for a fold. Pray harder sir, pray harder.
Full Tilt Poker $5/$10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
Hand Converter Tool from www.DeucesCracked.com
Button: $1081.50
SB: $215.00
BB: $1337.00
UTG: $1162.00
MP: $2700.25
CO: $1030.00
Preflop: Hero is Button with Ad, Qs
UTG raises to $35, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $120, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls $85.
Flop: ($255.00) Qd, 4c, 5s (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $100, UTG raises to $250, Hero calls $150.
Turn: ($755.00) Ks (2 players)
UTG bets $792 (all in), Hero calls $711.50 (all in).
Final Pot: $2178.00
Results:
Hero shows Ad, Qs (two pair, Aces and Queens).
UTG shows Jh, Qh (a pair of Queens).
Outcome: ($2178.00 Rake)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I should probably have been up against a huge draw. Pretty sick lack of re-raise pf, and then that draw heavy flop, and the check raise opportunity as Paul has the WORST position initially, but the BEST position once the short stack's C-bet goes through me. Bob Ciaffone talks about this phenomenon at length, apparently I need to reread that excerpt. Saw so much AA vs KK action tonight. At one table it happened in back to back hands, with myself having KK in the second confrontation. NEAT. Paul Wolfe, the FT pro that won this pot, is a super nice guy and loaned me some cab fare (actually he just commented on the hard core cooler).
Full Tilt Poker $5/$10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
Hand Converter Tool from www.DeucesCracked.com
CO: $2267.00
Button: $227.25
SB: $1342.00
BB: $1079.00
UTG: $1120.50
MP: $302.00
Preflop: Hero is CO with Th, Ts
UTG raises to $30, MP calls $30, Hero calls $30, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds.
Flop: ($105.00) Kd, Tc, 4c (3 players)
UTG checks, MP bets $100, Hero calls $100, UTG raises to $410, MP calls $172 (all in), Hero raises to $2,237 (all in), UTG calls $680.50 (all in).
Final Pot: $2558.00
Results:
Hero shows Th, Ts (three of a kind, Tens).
UTG shows Ks, Kc (three of a kind, Kings).
MP shows Ah, Ac (Just one measly pair).
Outcome: ($2558.00 Rake)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jamie, this is why you don't slow play, its just too hard to fold monster hands, and often you're missing a chance to get it in as a huge favorite. I was a bit shocked to see my opponents hand (suited clubs aspect). Pretty amazing check behind. Hated his river bet, I sort of assumed I'd be beat a large % of the time... I definitely played this hand terribly on about 3398723487 levels. I'll just lead with a nasty BET POT next time...
Full Tilt Poker $5/$10 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
Hand Converter Tool from www.DeucesCracked.com
Button: $1619.25
: $200.00
BB: $2349.50
UTG: $1127.00
CO: $1000.00
Preflop: Hero is BB with Qd, Qh
UTG raises to $35, CO folds, Button folds, Hero raises to $110, UTG calls $75.
Flop: ($225.00) 2s, Qc, Tc (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks.
Turn: ($225.00) 6d (2 players)
Hero bets $150, UTG calls $150.
River: ($525.00) Jh (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $420, Hero calls $420.
Final Pot: $1365.00
Results:
Hero mucks Qd, Qh.
UTG shows Ac, Kc (a straight, Ace high).
Outcome: UTG wins $1363.00.
($2.00 Rake)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Well now, I can suck out too, and somehow I get paid off these days. Must be the newfound popularity of my blog. lol @ kagame.
Full Tilt Poker $5/$10 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
Hand Converter Tool from www.DeucesCracked.com
CO: $1375.00
Button: $943.00
SB: $1412.00
BB: $702.00
UTG: $385.00
Preflop: Hero is CO with 4s, 3s
UTG folds, Hero raises to $35, Button calls $35, SB folds, BB calls $25.
Flop: ($110.00) Jd, 6h, 5d (3 players)
BB bets $66, Hero calls $66, Button folds.
Turn: ($242.00) 9c (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $190, BB calls $190.
River: ($622.00) 7c (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1,084 (all in), BB calls $411 (all in).
Final Pot: $1444.00
Results:
Hero shows 4s, 3s (a straight, Seven high).
BB doesn't show.
Outcome: ($1444.00 Rake)
Sunday, December 23, 2007
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
All's well that ends well
Full Tilt Poker Game #4553297942: Table Auborn (6 max) - $10/$20 - No Limit Hold'em - 10:25:42 ET - 2007/12/19
Seat 2: KaGame ($9,576)
Seat 4: ZingDingDing ($2,106)
Seat 5: dsindy ($2,496)
Seat 6: BOCKHUNTER ($2,033)
ZingDingDing posts the small blind of $10
dsindy posts the big blind of $20
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to KaGame [As Ac]
BOCKHUNTER has 15 seconds left to act
BOCKHUNTER folds
KaGame raises to $70
ZingDingDing raises to $250
dsindy folds
dsindy stands up
KaGame calls $180
*** FLOP *** [Qs 6d 5s]
ZingDingDing checks
KaGame bets $350
ZingDingDing has 15 seconds left to act
ZingDingDing raises to $1,250
KaGame raises to $2,150
ZingDingDing calls $606, and is all in
KaGame shows [As Ac]
ZingDingDing shows [Ts 7s]
Uncalled bet of $294 returned to KaGame
*** TURN *** [Qs 6d 5s] [9h]
*** RIVER *** [Qs 6d 5s 9h] [3d]
KaGame shows a pair of Aces
ZingDingDing shows Queen Ten high
KaGame wins the pot ($4,230) with a pair of Aces
ZingDingDing adds $2,000
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $4,232 | Rake $2
Board: [Qs 6d 5s 9h 3d]
Seat 2: KaGame (button) showed [As Ac] and won ($4,230) with a pair of Aces
Seat 4: ZingDingDing (small blind) showed [Ts 7s] and lost with Queen Ten high
Seat 5: dsindy (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: BOCKHUNTER didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: KaGame ($9,576)
Seat 4: ZingDingDing ($2,106)
Seat 5: dsindy ($2,496)
Seat 6: BOCKHUNTER ($2,033)
ZingDingDing posts the small blind of $10
dsindy posts the big blind of $20
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to KaGame [As Ac]
BOCKHUNTER has 15 seconds left to act
BOCKHUNTER folds
KaGame raises to $70
ZingDingDing raises to $250
dsindy folds
dsindy stands up
KaGame calls $180
*** FLOP *** [Qs 6d 5s]
ZingDingDing checks
KaGame bets $350
ZingDingDing has 15 seconds left to act
ZingDingDing raises to $1,250
KaGame raises to $2,150
ZingDingDing calls $606, and is all in
KaGame shows [As Ac]
ZingDingDing shows [Ts 7s]
Uncalled bet of $294 returned to KaGame
*** TURN *** [Qs 6d 5s] [9h]
*** RIVER *** [Qs 6d 5s 9h] [3d]
KaGame shows a pair of Aces
ZingDingDing shows Queen Ten high
KaGame wins the pot ($4,230) with a pair of Aces
ZingDingDing adds $2,000
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $4,232 | Rake $2
Board: [Qs 6d 5s 9h 3d]
Seat 2: KaGame (button) showed [As Ac] and won ($4,230) with a pair of Aces
Seat 4: ZingDingDing (small blind) showed [Ts 7s] and lost with Queen Ten high
Seat 5: dsindy (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: BOCKHUNTER didn't bet (folded)
Reality Resumes
The capstone to a night of beat after beat after beat after beat after...
Full Tilt Poker Game #4552531617: Table Oakmont (6 max) - $10/$20 - No Limit Hold'em - 7:28:41 ET - 2007/12/19
Seat 1: KaGame ($2,000)
Seat 2: Sydney Dean ($2,036)
Seat 3: luckydubs27 ($1,529)
Seat 4: BlaaserN ($368)
Seat 5: emma_206 ($500)
Seat 6: Legend ($380)
Legend posts the small blind of $10
KaGame posts the big blind of $20
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to KaGame [Jc Jd]
emma_206 stands up
Sydney Dean raises to $40
luckydubs27 calls $40
BlaaserN folds
Legend folds
KaGame raises to $170
Sydney Dean has 15 seconds left to act
Sydney Dean raises to $560
luckydubs27 folds
KaGame raises to $2,000, and is all in
Sydney Dean calls $1,440
KaGame shows [Jc Jd]
Sydney Dean shows [Ah 5h]
*** FLOP *** [5c Kd 9h]
*** TURN *** [5c Kd 9h] [Ac]
*** RIVER *** [5c Kd 9h Ac] [Qh]
KaGame shows a pair of Jacks
Sydney Dean shows two pair, Aces and Fives
Sydney Dean wins the pot ($4,047) with two pair, Aces and Fives
KaGame adds $400
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $4,050 | Rake $3
Board: [5c Kd 9h Ac Qh]
Seat 1: KaGame (big blind) showed [Jc Jd] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 2: Sydney Dean showed [Ah 5h] and won ($4,047) with two pair, Aces and Fives
Seat 3: luckydubs27 folded before the Flop
Seat 4: BlaaserN (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: emma_206 is sitting out
Seat 6: Legend (small blind) folded before the Flop
Full Tilt Poker Game #4552531617: Table Oakmont (6 max) - $10/$20 - No Limit Hold'em - 7:28:41 ET - 2007/12/19
Seat 1: KaGame ($2,000)
Seat 2: Sydney Dean ($2,036)
Seat 3: luckydubs27 ($1,529)
Seat 4: BlaaserN ($368)
Seat 5: emma_206 ($500)
Seat 6: Legend ($380)
Legend posts the small blind of $10
KaGame posts the big blind of $20
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to KaGame [Jc Jd]
emma_206 stands up
Sydney Dean raises to $40
luckydubs27 calls $40
BlaaserN folds
Legend folds
KaGame raises to $170
Sydney Dean has 15 seconds left to act
Sydney Dean raises to $560
luckydubs27 folds
KaGame raises to $2,000, and is all in
Sydney Dean calls $1,440
KaGame shows [Jc Jd]
Sydney Dean shows [Ah 5h]
*** FLOP *** [5c Kd 9h]
*** TURN *** [5c Kd 9h] [Ac]
*** RIVER *** [5c Kd 9h Ac] [Qh]
KaGame shows a pair of Jacks
Sydney Dean shows two pair, Aces and Fives
Sydney Dean wins the pot ($4,047) with two pair, Aces and Fives
KaGame adds $400
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $4,050 | Rake $3
Board: [5c Kd 9h Ac Qh]
Seat 1: KaGame (big blind) showed [Jc Jd] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 2: Sydney Dean showed [Ah 5h] and won ($4,047) with two pair, Aces and Fives
Seat 3: luckydubs27 folded before the Flop
Seat 4: BlaaserN (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: emma_206 is sitting out
Seat 6: Legend (small blind) folded before the Flop
Sunday, December 16, 2007
Excerpt from my paper on Survivorship and Randomness
Feedback Welcomed
My own personal experiences with survivorship are the primary cause of my interest in this topic. Beginning about halfway through my sophomore year of undergraduate study I took up the habit of participating in a five nights a week poker game with a group of other students at the University of Kansas. This group was maintained by a core membership of about ten individuals, with perhaps twenty or more others frequenting the game on a whim or only on a few occasions. Thinking back, the vicissitudes of random luck on certain individuals caused them to disappear forever, while other less skilled or intelligent players, are still playing to this day. Those with the initial luck sufficient to keep them playing soon gained the necessary experience and skills to become long term break even players, or even winners vs. weaker competition than my group of poker savants. An appraisal of the group four years later gives us a very dynamic and bizarre set of results with regard to poker success among the group‘s members, many of whom I am still cordial with. The earliest winner in the game, a player I will call Jeff, had a great deal of natural brilliance and aggression in his early style. Jeff won a tremendous amount of money ($30k+) from a start of perhaps $50. After this initial run, Jeff experienced numerous “blowups” where he would put his entire bankroll into a game, start to experience poor luck, start playing terribly, and subsequently lose everything he had won. Another of the early leaders, a player referred to here as Stephen, played very well compared to the group initially, showing advanced reasoning skills and the ability to go with his instincts. However, later on Stephen experienced numerous shocks to his confidence and was unable to continue winning, becoming a long term break-even player who never advanced to fulfill his, in my opinion, considerable potential. Another player, whom I will call Brett, was one of the biggest losers in the game initially, the other players would prompt a friend of his to invite him to the regular game to donate money (only a $20 or $40 buy-in early on, growing to $100 or $200 later). This went on for some time, but eventually things clicked and Brett began to win occasionally, always improving versus the field. Through the years Brett has become one of the most successful poker players any of the group have ever met, winning hundreds of thousands of dollars playing professionally on the internet. Many other players with medium level skills from this group have done well, and even more who seemed promising have experienced poor results and given up the game except as an occasional hobby. I personally have experienced both great success and huge blowups, my saving grace the fact that I have always taken money while winning and put it into a savings account or the stock market, convinced that the role of luck in the game was huge and that the extent of my results might only be the result of a prolonged lucky streak. As my experience has grown I realize that at some points the difference between success and failure was truly a coin flip.
The implications of my observations, while not at all scholarly or scientific, do have the advantage of being the result of first hand and highly detailed experience. Everything I witnessed in this game in which results come from mostly short term variance, combined with the necessity for basic math skills, intuition, emotional self control, fearlessness in the face of intimidating sums of money, and constant adaptation, lead me to believe that long term success was highly possible with the correct money management and determination. I was always told poker was unbeatable, like any zero sum or worse (when considering the money raked out of every pot by the house). This common knowledge was simply wrong. Yet I realized that in any individual, the ability to see odds clearly and make probabilistically correct decisions was an incredibly rare ability, especially in newcomers. Those who were successful in the game short term had basic technical poker skills the group as a whole lacked, however as we all gained those skills through practice and emulation, the long term winners emerged. Those long term winners, I call them survivors, had traits incredibly similar to the traits of surviving farmers, or of money managers with extremely long survival rates. Anyone can do well in the short term due to luck or random factors, but true success requires acceptance and expectation of the black swan event that will surely befall us all one day. For poker, all successful players have a fallback plan in case of losing their playing bankroll. They even have contingencies to make such a loss almost an inevitability, such as moving down in game size, or setting loss limits for a certain time period. As we have seen, the other risk filled environments have similar requirements for survivorship. Whether it be a particularly vicious flood that sweeps all but the field planted at the highest elevation away; or the utter and complete economic collapse of a particular country causing a market panic and a portfolio shattered into huge losses except for that one risk hedging short position which balances out a large percentage of the loss. (As an aside, my penchant for risk assessment and management has led me to consider a career in stock trading, or short term investing. However the more I read on the subject, the more I see the skills I gained from poker are merely an entrance ticket, and short term luck in this field is just as high a factor as that in poker. Truly verifiable results might take years or even decades to be revealed.)
My own personal experiences with survivorship are the primary cause of my interest in this topic. Beginning about halfway through my sophomore year of undergraduate study I took up the habit of participating in a five nights a week poker game with a group of other students at the University of Kansas. This group was maintained by a core membership of about ten individuals, with perhaps twenty or more others frequenting the game on a whim or only on a few occasions. Thinking back, the vicissitudes of random luck on certain individuals caused them to disappear forever, while other less skilled or intelligent players, are still playing to this day. Those with the initial luck sufficient to keep them playing soon gained the necessary experience and skills to become long term break even players, or even winners vs. weaker competition than my group of poker savants. An appraisal of the group four years later gives us a very dynamic and bizarre set of results with regard to poker success among the group‘s members, many of whom I am still cordial with. The earliest winner in the game, a player I will call Jeff, had a great deal of natural brilliance and aggression in his early style. Jeff won a tremendous amount of money ($30k+) from a start of perhaps $50. After this initial run, Jeff experienced numerous “blowups” where he would put his entire bankroll into a game, start to experience poor luck, start playing terribly, and subsequently lose everything he had won. Another of the early leaders, a player referred to here as Stephen, played very well compared to the group initially, showing advanced reasoning skills and the ability to go with his instincts. However, later on Stephen experienced numerous shocks to his confidence and was unable to continue winning, becoming a long term break-even player who never advanced to fulfill his, in my opinion, considerable potential. Another player, whom I will call Brett, was one of the biggest losers in the game initially, the other players would prompt a friend of his to invite him to the regular game to donate money (only a $20 or $40 buy-in early on, growing to $100 or $200 later). This went on for some time, but eventually things clicked and Brett began to win occasionally, always improving versus the field. Through the years Brett has become one of the most successful poker players any of the group have ever met, winning hundreds of thousands of dollars playing professionally on the internet. Many other players with medium level skills from this group have done well, and even more who seemed promising have experienced poor results and given up the game except as an occasional hobby. I personally have experienced both great success and huge blowups, my saving grace the fact that I have always taken money while winning and put it into a savings account or the stock market, convinced that the role of luck in the game was huge and that the extent of my results might only be the result of a prolonged lucky streak. As my experience has grown I realize that at some points the difference between success and failure was truly a coin flip.
The implications of my observations, while not at all scholarly or scientific, do have the advantage of being the result of first hand and highly detailed experience. Everything I witnessed in this game in which results come from mostly short term variance, combined with the necessity for basic math skills, intuition, emotional self control, fearlessness in the face of intimidating sums of money, and constant adaptation, lead me to believe that long term success was highly possible with the correct money management and determination. I was always told poker was unbeatable, like any zero sum or worse (when considering the money raked out of every pot by the house). This common knowledge was simply wrong. Yet I realized that in any individual, the ability to see odds clearly and make probabilistically correct decisions was an incredibly rare ability, especially in newcomers. Those who were successful in the game short term had basic technical poker skills the group as a whole lacked, however as we all gained those skills through practice and emulation, the long term winners emerged. Those long term winners, I call them survivors, had traits incredibly similar to the traits of surviving farmers, or of money managers with extremely long survival rates. Anyone can do well in the short term due to luck or random factors, but true success requires acceptance and expectation of the black swan event that will surely befall us all one day. For poker, all successful players have a fallback plan in case of losing their playing bankroll. They even have contingencies to make such a loss almost an inevitability, such as moving down in game size, or setting loss limits for a certain time period. As we have seen, the other risk filled environments have similar requirements for survivorship. Whether it be a particularly vicious flood that sweeps all but the field planted at the highest elevation away; or the utter and complete economic collapse of a particular country causing a market panic and a portfolio shattered into huge losses except for that one risk hedging short position which balances out a large percentage of the loss. (As an aside, my penchant for risk assessment and management has led me to consider a career in stock trading, or short term investing. However the more I read on the subject, the more I see the skills I gained from poker are merely an entrance ticket, and short term luck in this field is just as high a factor as that in poker. Truly verifiable results might take years or even decades to be revealed.)
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